Tue, Jan 22, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 08 | 07 | 024 |
| NJD | 23 | 113 | 010 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Bryce Salvador, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:35NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Marek Zidlicky · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:44NJDIlya KovalchukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
Penalties (30)
- P1 12:00NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:20NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:25PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39NJDMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:44PHIKimmo Timonen: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:02NJDMattias Tedenby: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:31NJDStefan Matteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:31NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:31PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:31PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:50PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50NJDSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50NJDSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56PHITye McGinn: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 16:46PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:49PHIClaude Giroux: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 7:35NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P3 11:22NJDBryce Salvador: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:22PHIMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:22NJDBryce Salvador: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:22PHIMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:24PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:32PHINicklas Grossmann: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:50NJDMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P3 15:28NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:28PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:27NJDSteve Bernier: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:27PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Read – Couturier8:25
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – McGinn5:52
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek9:33
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Wellwood – Laughton6:26
xG 0.16–0.65 (19%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn9:07
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Gervais – Meszaros2:13
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Timonen – Meszaros2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Kovalchuk – Zajac9:36
xG 0.71–0.06 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Matteau2:19
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter7:15
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Tedenby4:42
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Fayne2:04
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov4:30
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene11:39
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).