Tue, Jan 22, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 010 | 07 | 129 |
| COL | 06 | 013 | 312 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Jordan Nolan, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 1:00COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Jan Hejda, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 2:35COLDavid JonesPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 8:16COLPA ParenteauAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:55COLMark Olver: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:41COLPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:50COLJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 10:58COLCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:14LAKDustin Penner: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:43COLJan Hejda: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 1:27LAKDustin Penner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:26LAKDavis Drewiske: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:26COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:06COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Clifford – Nolan7:08
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King8:36
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:36
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Penner8:36
xG 0.07–0.55 (11%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Voynov14:08
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:28
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Drewiske6:23
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Duchene – Landeskog10:26
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – Downie4:55
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – McLeod3:00
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn9:49
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Wilson10:48
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda11:33
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zanon – Barrie8:41
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).