Tue, Jan 22, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 617 | 09 | 05 | 631 |
| EDM | 17 | 117 | 15 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:30SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 8:25EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 10:02SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Brad Stuart · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P1 11:07SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
- P1 18:09SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Martin Havlat, TJ Galiardi · Snap, 0.40 xG5–1
- P1 19:20SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Tommy Wingels, TJ Galiardi · Slap, 0.04 xG6–1
- P2 14:25EDMJustin SchultzPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 3:34EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ladislav Smid · Snap, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:16EDMAles Hemsky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 3:03EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:49SJSBrad Stuart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:33EDMCorey Potter: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:25SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:59SJSDan Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:55EDMEric Belanger: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:55SJSRyane Clowe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:47SJSMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:31SJSJoe Pavelski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:30EDMAles Hemsky: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski10:29
xG 0.95–0.38 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Sheppard6:44
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture10:50
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Galiardi – Wingels8:50
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Braun10:38
xG 0.96–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Vlasic14:02
xG 1.08–0.35 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Boyle – Irwin12:15
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Horcoff – Hartikainen6:17
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:04
xG 0.62–0.80 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Belanger – Petrell – Paajarvi6:09
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov9:59
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Smid – Petry11:39
xG 0.76–0.88 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Whitney – Potter9:43
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Schultz14:50
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).