Wed, Jan 23, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 310 | 27 | 524 |
| PIT | 112 | 111 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:09TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nikolay Kulemin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 6:48TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:17PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 14:34TORJames van RiemsdykGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 5:18TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:59TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Michael Kostka · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:58PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:58TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:22PITChris Kunitz: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:18TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min
- P1 17:53TORMike Komisarek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:38PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45PITDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55PITMatt Cooke: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:48PITKris Letang: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:57TORMichael Kostka: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:29TORMichael Kostka: Interference2 min
- P3 11:05TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:51PITChris Kunitz: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:09PITSidney Crosby: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 18:09PITChris Kunitz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Kessel – Bozak5:40
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak6:53
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Komarov – Kadri2:36
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – van Riemsdyk9:25
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson10:45
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Phaneuf – Kostka9:39
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson2:43
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Crosby – Neal2:56
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby6:58
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kennedy – Neal2:02
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin13:09
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang12:16
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 1–3
- Engelland – Despres5:58
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).