Thu, Jan 24, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 08 | 16 | 119 |
| PHI | 011 | 217 | 05 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:53PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Matt Read · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 15:54PHIJakub VoracekPPGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–2
- P3 1:39NYRTaylor PyattPPAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:37PHITom Sestito: Interference2 min
- P1 2:37PHITom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:37NYRStu Bickel: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:37NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:37NYRStu Bickel: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:11NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:44PHITye McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:44NYRKris Newbury: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44NYRKris Newbury: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:22PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:25NYRRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:24PHITye McGinn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:39PHINicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Callahan – Stepan9:26
xG 0.99–0.55 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Nash – Stepan2:22
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rupp – Boyle – Hagelin7:21
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan2:14
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh19:21
xG 1.15–0.94 (55%)attempts 19–29goals 0–1
- Eminger – Stralman7:15
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto15:29
xG 0.37–0.92 (29%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – McGinn – Laughton7:44
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier11:00
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Shelley – Sestito – Wellwood6:27
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Read15:16
xG 0.95–1.51 (39%)attempts 24–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann12:11
xG 0.89–0.34 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Gervais – Grossmann2:24
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn2:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).