Thu, Jan 24, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 411 | 02 | 422 |
| WSH | 011 | 09 | 111 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:47MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Raphael Diaz · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 4:44MTLAndrei MarkovPPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–0
- P2 8:39MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Rene Bourque, Raphael Diaz · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 18:21MTLJosh GorgesAssists: Francis Bouillon, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.00 xG4–0
- P3 17:37WSHJoey CrabbAssists: Jason Chimera, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:33WSHMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:15MTLRyan White: Holding2 min
- P2 1:51WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:16WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:32WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 13:36MTLRyan White: Interference2 min
- P3 3:38MTLBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:28WSHTomas Kundratek: Interference2 min
- P3 14:37WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:37MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:37MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:44WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Armstrong – White7:48
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:55
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:02
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:21
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin13:46
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Gorges3:09
xG 0.00–0.24 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Perreault – Johansson2:13
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Hendricks – Brouwer4:17
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wolski – Backstrom9:49
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Crabb – Beagle2:16
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Green7:59
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Kundratek12:23
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Poti – Carlson4:28
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).