Thu, Jan 24, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 118 | 110 | 11 | 341 |
| DAL | 16 | 18 | 08 | 01 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:59DALLoui ErikssonSHAssists: Derek Roy, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 10:41DALRay WhitneyAssists: Cody Eakin · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 15:57CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Leddy · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 14:07CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:41CHIMarian HossaPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:26DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01DALJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48DALRyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:09DALPhilip Larsen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:53DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:08CHIMarian Hossa: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:08DALEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:22DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Frolik – Kruger5:31
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw9:54
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:38
xG 0.67–0.76 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Sharp – Bolland – Kane10:39
xG 0.25–0.68 (27%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:45
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:29
xG 1.14–1.30 (47%)attempts 22–21goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Leddy12:31
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Ryder – Eakin11:55
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Morrow – Fiddler – Nystrom8:51
xG 0.30–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Wandell – Smith – Garbutt5:42
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Morrow – Nystrom – Wandell2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski13:16
xG 1.16–0.42 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Larsen – Dillon16:49
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn12:13
xG 0.20–0.94 (18%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).