Thu, Jan 24, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 115 | 07 | 01 | 131 |
| EDM | 015 | 09 | 110 | 15 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:26LAKJeff CarterAssists: Kyle Clifford · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 19:55EDMNail YakupovAssists: Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.18 xG1–1
- OT 3:01EDMSam GagnerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.36 xG1–2
Penalties (21)
- P1 3:47EDMShawn Horcoff: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 3:47EDMLadislav Smid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:09EDMLadislav Smid: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 9:54LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54EDMLadislav Smid: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:54EDMLadislav Smid: Instigator face shield2 min
- P1 9:54EDMLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54EDMLadislav Smid: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:07LAKDwight King: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:19LAKMike Richards: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:14LAKJustin Williams: Holding2 min
- P2 3:54LAKColin Fraser: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:54EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 6:33LAKSlava Voynov: Interference2 min
- P2 13:42EDMRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:33EDMMark Fistric: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:36LAKTrevor Lewis: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:06LAKTrevor Lewis: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:23EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:10LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:21LAKJeff Carter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Clifford5:33
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Fraser – Richardson – Nolan3:59
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar7:03
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King5:37
xG 0.06–0.05 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Voynov11:52
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty11:26
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Drewiske4:02
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Yakupov5:12
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:45
xG 0.71–0.82 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Belanger – Petrell – Hartikainen2:42
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Smyth – Horcoff – Paajarvi4:26
xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry5:29
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Schultz2:12
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz7:40
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).