Fri, Jan 25, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 19 | 06 | 226 |
| BOS | 114 | 17 | 26 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Daniel Paille, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 11:13NYIKeith AucoinAssists: Colin McDonald, David Ullstrom · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 9:50NYIKeith AucoinUnassisted · Slap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 13:42BOSGregory CampbellAssists: David Krejci, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:07BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 13:33BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:54NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:33BOSDaniel Paille: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:33NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:33NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:33BOSShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:39BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
- P2 10:18NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:14NYIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P3 0:28BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom7:01
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 2–2
- Boyes – Nielsen – Grabner8:09
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares14:09
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas5:28
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Strait9:03
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Finley7:33
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:42
xG 0.63–0.72 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:18
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:42
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:50
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley8:12
xG 0.07–0.42 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton11:32
xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
- Ference – McQuaid12:34
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk17:07
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).