Fri, Jan 25, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 06 | 213 | 01 | 228 |
| NJD | 16 | 114 | 07 | 18 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:55NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Jacob Josefson, Mark Fayne · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 19:00NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: David Clarkson, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.50 xG0–2
- P3 12:45WSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Joel Ward, Mike Green · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 17:04WSHMike GreenUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 4:39NJDIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:01WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min
- P1 11:54NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:21WSHWojtek Wolski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:53NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:41WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:15WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:33WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:25NJDPatrik Elias: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:39NJDMattias Tedenby: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:02NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:11NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:52NJDMattias Tedenby: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:52NJDSteve Bernier: Abuse of officials2 min
- OT 1:05WSHMike Green: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Fehr – Johansson5:48
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Crabb – Ovechkin – Beagle6:27
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ward5:13
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom6:52
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carlson12:45
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner12:00
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Schultz – Kundratek6:49
xG 0.01–0.04 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Clarkson6:58
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter4:21
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Josefson3:13
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Tedenby4:58
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky10:50
xG 0.63–0.53 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Fayne – Greene12:46
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky3:44
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).