Fri, Jan 25, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 416 | 013 | 436 |
| TBL | 115 | 25 | 311 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09TBLMatt CarlePPAssists: Cory Conacher, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 4:11OTTErik CondraAssists: Chris Neil, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:30OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:45OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Milan Michalek, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 15:00TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Sami Salo, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 17:30OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Kaspars Daugavins · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 18:10TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 3:39TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Sami Salo, Cory Conacher · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 12:58TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
- P3 19:18TBLTom PyattENAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 0:35OTTMilan Michalek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:53OTTPeter Regin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:09OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P1 15:09OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:10TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:10OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:56TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:37OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20TBLBrian Lee: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:52TBLKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P3 19:50TBLKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50TBLKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50TBLKeith Aulie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:50TBLAdam Hall: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:50OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50OTTErik Condra: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:50TBLAdam Hall: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Turris – Smith3:21
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Silfverberg11:26
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith6:23
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening2:27
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Borowiecki7:14
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson19:36
xG 0.61–0.49 (55%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
- Phillips – Benoit2:50
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Malone – Conacher3:40
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Conacher2:15
xG 0.03–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos3:48
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos3:42
xG 0.12–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman15:03
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 3–0
- Bergeron – Aulie2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle14:47
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).