Fri, Jan 25, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 214 | 012 | 09 | 235 |
| WPG | 012 | 313 | 17 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 14:58PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 1:10WPGEvander KaneAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:35WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:54WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 18:52WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:51WPGOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:01PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:45PITDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kennedy – Neal13:14
xG 1.25–0.54 (70%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
- Cooke – Glass – Sutter7:34
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby14:41
xG 0.93–0.77 (55%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Adams – Vitale – Tangradi6:24
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin16:00
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Lovejoy11:06
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Letang19:24
xG 1.34–1.32 (50%)attempts 26–24goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Wellwood – Burmistrov9:10
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright7:09
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane13:47
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Antropov – Ladd – Little14:34
xG 0.55–1.58 (26%)attempts 14–28goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Stuart16:31
xG 0.93–0.77 (55%)attempts 18–22goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Postma10:36
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien21:21
xG 0.60–1.74 (26%)attempts 16–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).