Sat, Jan 26, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 23 | 06 | 08 | 217 |
| NYR | 014 | 111 | 417 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: John-Michael Liles, Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:15TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.55 xG2–0
- P2 5:43NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Marian Gaborik, Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 7:36NYRMarc StaalAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 12:57NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Brad Richards · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 17:08NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Derek Stepan, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:45NYRMarian GaborikENAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:07NYRRyan Callahan: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:59TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:59NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:01NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:01TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:56TORMatt Frattin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:39NYRBenn Ferriero: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:35TORTyler Bozak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:41NYRJeff Halpern: Interference2 min
- P2 11:58TORMikhail Grabovski: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 17:14TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:14NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Kessel – Bozak7:36
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Brown2:29
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Frattin – Kadri2:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – van Riemsdyk9:31
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Fraser5:13
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson2:54
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson9:05
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Nash16:08
xG 1.89–0.92 (67%)attempts 19–12goals 3–0
- Callahan – Ferriero – Hagelin4:00
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Callahan – Stepan4:27
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Ferriero – Hagelin5:38
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Del Zotto15:56
xG 1.60–0.70 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 4–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:50
xG 1.38–0.80 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Eminger – Stralman4:12
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).