Sat, Jan 26, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 39 | 210 | 27 | 726 |
| FLA | 011 | 112 | 08 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:12PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Ilya Bryzgalov · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 18:51PHITye McGinnAssists: Braydon Coburn, Ruslan Fedotenko · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 18:34PHIMatt ReadAssists: Braydon Coburn, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 19:10FLAPeter MuellerAssists: Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 19:47PHILuke SchennUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 0:54PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.07 xG6–1
- P3 8:00PHIRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Max Talbot, Tye McGinn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG7–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:56FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:48FLAJack Skille: Interference2 min
- P1 8:10PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:42PHIMatt Read: Interference2 min
- P2 4:46FLAKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:45FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P2 7:54PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:01FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P2 15:15PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 18:18PHIKurtis Foster: Interference2 min
- P2 18:18FLAScottie Upshall: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 0:38FLAJerred Smithson: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 18:02FLAKeaton Ellerby: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopecky won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Read8:01
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Talbot – McGinn7:10
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Brière – Voracek – Couturier7:19
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Knuble – Schenn – Laughton9:16
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn6:33
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Gervais – Grossmann2:17
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Schenn2:37
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Skille – Matthias6:39
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau9:27
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Kopecky – Fleischmann8:33
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Howden4:04
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 4–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov5:51
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Weaver4:25
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Ellerby4:31
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).