Sat, Jan 26, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 312 | 010 | 432 |
| DAL | 25 | 07 | 111 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31STLWade ReddenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Sobotka · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 5:57DALTomas VincourAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 12:40DALMichael RyderPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Ray Whitney · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:51STLDavid PerronAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:32STLChris StewartAssists: Patrik Berglund, David Perron · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 19:44STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 2:24DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Brenden Morrow, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:30STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:48DALReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:34DALTomas Vincour: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:43STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:42DALVernon Fiddler: Holding2 min
- P3 9:39STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min
- P3 19:45STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron10:22
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Stewart – Berglund5:54
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz3:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Schwartz4:00
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk13:30
xG 0.77–0.29 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Polak – Russell13:40
xG 0.85–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Redden – Pietrangelo14:23
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Nystrom – Vincour8:24
xG 0.46–0.38 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Sceviour – Garbutt4:44
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 1–2
- Eriksson – Wandell – Smith8:54
xG 0.08–0.26 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Whitney – Ryder – Eakin13:13
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski12:59
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Benn – Dillon12:06
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Rome10:11
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).