Sat, Jan 26, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 14 | 16 | 320 |
| CGY | 213 | 213 | 09 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 14:25CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Mark Giordano, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 19:19EDMJustin SchultzPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 3:59CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 8:47EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Justin Schultz, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 14:57CGYLee StempniakPPGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jiri Hudler · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 19:58EDMSam GagnerAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:58EDMJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P1 12:22EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:14CGYCurtis Glencross: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 5:07EDMRyan Whitney: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:46CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:38EDMEric Belanger: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:38CGYBlair Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:01EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:36CGYBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:14EDMShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min
- P3 7:40EDMEric Belanger: Holding2 min
- P3 9:05CGYJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Iginla
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Smyth – Horcoff – Paajarvi5:08
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov10:45
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:35
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Fistric9:57
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Whitney – Schultz3:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry11:00
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Backlund10:24
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Cervenka10:32
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Jones – Baertschi4:48
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Glencross9:35
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie12:20
xG 1.04–0.22 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano13:59
xG 0.76–0.26 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Sarich – Smith9:24
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).