Sat, Jan 26, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 06 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 221 |
| ANA | 07 | 16 | 16 | 03 | 1 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52NSHBrandon YipUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 19:27ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 10:09NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Kevin Klein, Gabriel Bourque · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 11:12ANADaniel WinnikAssists: Corey Perry, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 2. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 3. NSH Mike Fisher stopped
- 4. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 5. NSH David Legwand stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:28NSHNick Spaling: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:56NSHCraig Smith: Throwing equipment2 min
- P1 19:35ANAToni Lydman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:16NSHBrandon Yip: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:36ANABryan Allen: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:17NSHHal Gill: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:22ANARyan Getzlaf: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Koivu
- P1 20:00Gill hit Cogliano
- P1 20:00Takeaway by Klein
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Bourque7:03
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Wilson8:43
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Legwand – Yip – Bourque2:04
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Yip – Spaling2:11
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Klein9:49
xG 0.85–0.23 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Hannan – Ellis9:00
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hannan – Klein2:04
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri3:50
xG 0.57–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Winnik9:57
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano3:40
xG 0.10–0.03 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan6:00
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Sbisa12:19
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin13:41
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Allen – Fowler14:15
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).