Sun, Jan 27, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 06 | 18 | 224 |
| WSH | 113 | 17 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Steve Ott, Drew Stafford · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:02WSHJoel WardAssists: Jason Chimera, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:18WSHJohn ErskineAssists: Joel Ward, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 5:11WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Mike Green, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 10:13BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Andrej Sekera, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:49BUFSteve Ott: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:27WSHJohn Erskine: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:32BUFAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
- P3 4:28BUFAlexander Sulzer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:58WSHJoey Crabb: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Foligno – Grigorenko10:16
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Scott3:27
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Ennis12:41
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Pominville – Gerbe – Hodgson9:33
xG 0.03–0.48 (6%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera2:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Leopold – Myers12:01
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer12:31
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ribeiro – Ward8:24
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom4:24
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Perreault6:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle2:05
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner20:36
xG 1.01–0.48 (68%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Erskine – Carlson16:23
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Erskine – Green2:22
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).