Sun, Jan 27, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 013 | 06 | 05 | 3 | 234 |
| OTT | 012 | 19 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:44OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 2. PIT James Neal scored
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:38OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:36OTTJakob Silfverberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:55PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P1 19:17OTTSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
- P2 4:51OTTErik Condra: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 6:25PITPascal Dupuis: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:17OTTAndre Benoit: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Vitale – Tangradi4:40
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Glass – Sutter5:04
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Glass – Malkin – Neal4:19
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby11:39
xG 0.32–0.54 (38%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Letang4:06
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang3:14
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Lovejoy2:19
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Greening13:42
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Latendresse – Turris – Silfverberg10:17
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Condra – Smith9:06
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Regin – Daugavins – O'Brien5:31
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Borowiecki13:09
xG 0.84–0.23 (78%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:08
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Phillips – Benoit11:03
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).