Sun, Jan 27, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 18 | 28 | 02 | 325 |
| MTL | 216 | 06 | 15 | 15 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25MTLRyan WhiteAssists: Travis Moen, Alexei Emelin · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 13:35MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 3:26NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Mark Fayne, David Clarkson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:00MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 5:23NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 13:02NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 4:22MTLAndrei MarkovPPGWGAssists: Rene Bourque, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:47MTLBrandon Prust: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:37NJDAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P1 17:47NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:09MTLRaphael Diaz: Holding2 min
- P1 19:51NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Holding2 min
- P2 17:20NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P3 4:32MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:32MTLBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:01NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Clarkson8:15
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Tedenby4:06
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Kovalchuk2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Matteau5:15
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Volchenkov11:33
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Salvador – Zidlicky13:51
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky2:26
xG 0.02–0.18 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque14:22
xG 1.03–0.14 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White6:22
xG 0.51–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:10
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Cole – Desharnais – Eller11:01
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin17:09
xG 0.91–0.32 (74%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Gorges – Emelin2:59
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz10:23
xG 0.39–0.23 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).