Sun, Jan 27, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 09 | 19 | 01 | 130 |
| CHI | 111 | 06 | 08 | 12 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 4:30DETJohan FranzenAssists: Damien Brunner, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 2:45CHINick LeddyGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:45DETKent Huskins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 4:34CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:48CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:22CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:39CHIBrent Seabrook: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:58CHIBryan Bickell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:29CHIJamal Mayers: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 11:29DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 14:34DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Brunner9:58
xG 0.55–0.28 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton5:49
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Filppula11:01
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Eaves – Abdelkader6:13
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith5:48
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith3:13
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Lashoff2:49
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Stalberg – Shaw8:57
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Mayers – Frolik – Kruger4:35
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad9:55
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Sharp – Bolland – Kane10:39
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Leddy8:32
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson12:54
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:02
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).