Sun, Jan 27, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 09 | 39 | 01 | 425 |
| WPG | 112 | 111 | 29 | 13 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34NYIDavid UllstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:15WPGAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:13WPGBryan LittleAssists: Nik Antropov, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 0:22NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:09NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 9:53NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 12:59WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 14:04WPGAlexander BurmistrovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:59WPGEvander KaneGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:13NYIColin McDonald: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:44NYIKyle Okposo: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 19:52NYIMatt Carkner: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:56NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:56WPGMark Stuart: Concealing puck2 min
- P3 9:20WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:15NYIDavid Ullstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin3:12
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom8:26
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares14:26
xG 0.71–0.97 (42%)attempts 25–17goals 2–2
- Boyes – Nielsen – Grabner10:37
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hickey2:03
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carkner – Hickey8:03
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:03
xG 0.52–0.99 (35%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wheeler – Kane11:20
xG 1.07–0.56 (66%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright5:47
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Antropov – Ladd – Little11:38
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Wellwood – Burmistrov7:15
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:28
xG 1.71–0.66 (72%)attempts 25–18goals 1–2
- Clitsome – Postma11:06
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Stuart15:34
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 12–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).