Sun, Jan 27, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 4, St. Louis Blues 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 34 | 14 | 00 | 416 |
| STL | 17 | 19 | 216 | 12 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16STLWade ReddenAssists: David Backes, David Perron · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 2:04MINZach ParisePPAssists: Tom Gilbert, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 10:52MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:37MINMikko KoivuAssists: Zach Parise, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 15:38STLPatrik BerglundAssists: David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 11:29STLChris StewartAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 13:47STLBarret JackmanAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 15:52MINDany HeatleyAssists: Matt Cullen, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 2:16STLVladimir SobotkaGWGAssists: Andy McDonald, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:35MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:51STLRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:27STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16MINMikko Koivu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:43STLKris Russell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:43STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:43MINMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:21MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:37MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:11MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Parise12:59
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Cullen – Brodziak – Clutterbuck6:03
xG 0.28–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe2:33
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Konopka – Mitchell – Powe3:59
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Brodin10:36
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin2:38
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stoner – Falk11:11
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Tarasenko6:52
xG 0.95–0.44 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron9:43
xG 0.21–0.22 (50%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Sobotka – Reaves4:38
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz6:57
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell9:24
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:42
xG 0.41–0.39 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Redden – Pietrangelo15:21
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).