Mon, Jan 28, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 19 | 218 | 538 |
| CAR | 111 | 213 | 08 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 6:15BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 14:50CARJamie McBainAssists: Eric Staal, Alexander Semin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:52BOSNathan HortonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 17:55CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 18:45CAREric StaalAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 18:10BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 19:52BOSTyler SeguinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:40BOSAnton Khudobin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:28CARPatrick Dwyer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:06CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:06CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:06BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:25BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:04BOSTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:48BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52BOSAaron Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:43CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:23BOSChris Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:29CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:52CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Bourque – Peverley6:38
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:23
xG 0.93–0.56 (62%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:41
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:17
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton13:49
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Chara – Boychuk12:37
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Chara – Hamilton2:20
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Dalpe – Skinner7:43
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:11
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Brent – Dwyer – Westgarth2:00
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Bowman5:51
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain16:58
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Harrison – Sanguinetti2:11
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Corvo – Sanguinetti6:12
xG 0.18–0.35 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).