Mon, Jan 28, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 15 | 011 | 125 |
| CBJ | 03 | 117 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:13DALPhilip LarsenPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 17:47CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 1:22CBJVinny ProspalGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:03DALPhilip Larsen: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:22CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:06DALEric Nystrom: Interference2 min
- P1 18:29DALJordie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:41CBJArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:44DALVernon Fiddler: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:26DALTom Wandell: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 18:46CBJNikita Nikitin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:31CBJNikita Nikitin: Holding2 min
- P3 19:55CBJNikita Nikitin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55DALJamie Benn: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Eriksson – Benn11:32
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Ryder – Eakin10:03
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Morrow – Wandell – Garbutt2:55
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Vincour6:07
xG 0.01–0.24 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen13:57
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Benn11:29
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon11:52
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Brassard – Calvert6:38
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Gillies4:28
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Foligno – Johansen8:11
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Umberger – Dorsett – Anisimov11:41
xG 0.16–0.46 (25%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Aucoin – Moore10:33
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson15:28
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin14:03
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).