Mon, Jan 28, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 0, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 07 | 011 | 021 |
| PHX | 15 | 19 | 211 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00PHXAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Nick Johnson, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 16:48PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P3 11:34PHXNick JohnsonAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 15:02PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:29PHXSteve Sullivan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:12NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:12PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:54PHXLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
- P2 6:28NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:03NSHMatt Halischuk: Interference2 min
- P3 5:24NSHMartin Erat: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:24PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:08NSHColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:15NSHGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Erat – Wilson13:40
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Bourque10:04
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Halischuk – Spaling – Smith4:33
xG 0.01–0.02 (31%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clune – Halischuk – Smith3:00
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:34
xG 0.89–0.70 (56%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
- Hannan – Ellis15:10
xG 0.28–0.51 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Gill – Klein10:31
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Korpikoski10:53
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Johnson4:34
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Doan – Vermette8:11
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Bolduc – Boedker9:58
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Rundblad9:40
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle19:20
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:08
xG 0.30–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).