Mon, Jan 28, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 03 | 011 | 124 | 138 |
| EDM | 214 | 17 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:23EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Teemu Hartikainen, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–1
- P1 18:05EDMJordan EberlePPGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:40EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 7:43COLPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 19:27EDMNail YakupovENAssists: Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:39COLGreg Zanon: Holding2 min
- P1 5:28EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P1 13:24COLJamie McGinn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:16COLMatt Duchene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:26COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:44EDMLennart Petrell: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 14:35COLGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:58COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – McGinn – Duchene8:15
xG 1.12–0.47 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Malone2:16
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn3:29
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Jones – Stastny4:54
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Hunwick12:07
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson13:58
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – O'Brien14:20
xG 0.45–0.71 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:26
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Paajarvi2:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Belanger – Hartikainen – Paajarvi6:47
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov8:27
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz11:19
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry15:05
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter10:19
xG 0.44–0.88 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).