Tue, Jan 29, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 24 | 011 | 321 |
| MTL | 27 | 110 | 19 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04MTLRene BourquePPAssists: Andrei Markov, Raphael Diaz · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:22MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 16:10WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:32WPGNik AntropovAssists: Bryan Little, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 11:48WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 15:08MTLErik ColeAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 5:31MTLTomas PlekanecPPGWGAssists: Raphael Diaz, Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:48WPGPaul Postma: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:25MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:25WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:51MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:29MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 10:26WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:50MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:05WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Interference2 min
- P3 1:09MTLColby Armstrong: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:36WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:35MTLBrandon Prust: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:52MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52MTLBrandon Prust: Diving2 min
- P3 13:52WPGNik Antropov: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:44WPGToby Enstrom: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Antropov – Ladd – Little12:05
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright2:37
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane10:54
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Wellwood – Burmistrov9:31
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Clitsome – Postma7:11
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Stuart13:29
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien2:27
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:56
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Eller8:09
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:44
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White6:10
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Bouillon11:35
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin14:10
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Gorges – Diaz11:52
xG 0.15–0.11 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).