Tue, Jan 29, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 215 | 09 | 09 | 233 |
| OTT | 09 | 16 | 212 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 17:43WSHMatt HendricksAssists: John Erskine, Jay Beagle · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 18:37OTTJim O'BrienAssists: Erik Condra, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 2:20OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 17:30OTTSergei GoncharPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:25WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P1 4:56OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:56WSHNicklas Backstrom: Concealing puck2 min
- P1 15:37OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P1 17:53WSHMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
- P1 17:53OTTKyle Turris: Diving2 min
- P2 15:44WSHMathieu Perreault: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:23OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:24WSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Brouwer – Backstrom6:28
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ward8:39
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Perreault5:10
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Crabb – Ovechkin – Beagle7:47
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Kundratek9:25
xG 0.57–0.07 (90%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Erskine – Carlson14:28
xG 0.86–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Green – Alzner14:25
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – O'Brien – Zibanejad9:24
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Michalek – Regin – Silfverberg2:43
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Regin – Latendresse – Silfverberg4:23
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:34
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Borowiecki3:26
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Borowiecki8:39
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Wiercioch4:28
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).