Tue, Jan 29, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 310 | 07 | 424 |
| PIT | 08 | 011 | 119 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:46NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Marty Reasoner · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 15:22NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 17:15NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–0
- P3 18:51PITPascal DupuisAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:57NYIKyle Okposo: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:46NYIMatt Carkner: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:42PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05PITTyler Kennedy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:54NYIColin McDonald: Boarding5 min
- P2 18:54NYIColin McDonald: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:56NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56PITMatt Cooke: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Boyes – Nielsen – Grabner8:51
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom6:28
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas9:05
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares13:28
xG 0.26–0.59 (30%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Strait15:21
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Carkner – Hickey11:42
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:19
xG 0.49–0.86 (36%)attempts 14–25goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:23
xG 0.70–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Malkin – Neal – Jeffrey6:06
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Kennedy – Vitale4:48
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Vitale2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Despres10:11
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Despres3:10
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Despres2:49
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).