Tue, Jan 29, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 13 | 111 | 219 |
| MIN | 28 | 015 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jonas Brodin, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 18:21MINTom GilbertAssists: Mikko Koivu, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:59CBJMark LetestuAssists: Jared Boll, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–2
- P3 7:32CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 14:41MINPierre-Marc BouchardGWGAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Justin Falk · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:00MINDarroll Powe: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:00CBJColton Gillies: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:33CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P1 19:42CBJAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min
- P2 6:54CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:54MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:56MINDarroll Powe: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:25MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:06MINTom Gilbert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:49CBJFedor Tyutin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 16:13MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Letestu4:05
xG 0.79–0.11 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Prospal – Foligno – Johansen4:12
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Dubinsky – Dorsett3:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Umberger – Dorsett – Anisimov2:45
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Johnson17:55
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Moore9:28
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Moore4:01
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Parise13:30
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Cullen – Brodziak – Clutterbuck9:06
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Konopka – Mitchell – Powe5:42
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Setoguchi – Granlund6:51
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Scandella12:33
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Stoner15:33
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin14:44
xG 0.31–0.99 (24%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).