Wed, Jan 30, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 010 | 013 | 132 |
| OTT | 111 | 311 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–0
- P1 7:53OTTJim O'BrienAssists: Erik Karlsson, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 7:27OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 9:25OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Colin Greening, Andre Benoit · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:02OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Zack Smith, Colin Greening · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 14:46OTTChris NeilAssists: Andre Benoit, Zack Smith · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (22)
- P1 1:27OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 1:27MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:18OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P1 5:38OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:38MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:38OTTChris Neil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:48MTLErik Cole: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:48OTTMark Borowiecki: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:05MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P1 14:15OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:11OTTKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:58OTTMark Borowiecki: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:58MTLRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:23MTLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:24MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:24MTLRyan White: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:16MTLRene Bourque: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:42OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:37OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:01
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Eller7:21
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Armstrong – White – Eller2:29
xG 0.01–0.01 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:34
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Bouillon10:53
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Gorges3:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz12:10
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Turris12:41
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Regin – Latendresse – Silfverberg8:15
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Condra – O'Brien – Zibanejad6:01
xG 0.00–0.27 (1%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith8:30
xG 0.16–0.58 (22%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:55
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Benoit – Wiercioch12:52
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Phillips – Borowiecki9:58
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).