Wed, Jan 30, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 2, Phoenix Coyotes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 07 | 04 | 12 | 221 |
| PHX | 010 | 07 | 110 | 01 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51EDMLennart PetrellAssists: Ryan Smyth, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 19:41PHXNick JohnsonPPAssists: David Moss, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 3:52EDMNail YakupovPPGWGAssists: Ryan Whitney, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:12EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:34PHXAlexandre Bolduc: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:06PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:46PHXAlexandre Bolduc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:14EDMSam Gagner: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 2:22PHXAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:52PHXDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:52EDMRyan Whitney: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Yakupov8:45
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell10:28
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Belanger – Hartikainen – Paajarvi5:21
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:53
xG 0.34–0.64 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Potter12:43
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry17:57
xG 0.87–1.00 (47%)attempts 17–25goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz14:34
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Korpikoski7:45
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Johnson5:02
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Boedker3:44
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Moss – Gordon – Chipchura2:27
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Rundblad8:05
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Stone4:23
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle17:06
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).