Thu, Jan 31, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 215 | 19 | 14 | 535 |
| NJD | 010 | 311 | 110 | 01 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:31NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 2:41NYIKeith AucoinPPAssists: Travis Hamonic, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P2 3:13NJDSteve BernierAssists: Stephen Gionta, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 6:21NJDRyan CarterAssists: Matt Anderson, Stephen Gionta · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 7:31NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Evgeni Nabokov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:12NJDHenrik TallinderAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 11:32NYIMark StreitAssists: David Ullstrom, Casey Cizikas · Deflected, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 13:50NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: David Clarkson, Dainius Zubrus · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 2:01NYIBrad BoyesPPGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:35NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:35NJDKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:47NYIEvgeni Nabokov: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:51NJDAndy Greene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:21NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:15NYIDavid Ullstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 13:40NJDPatrik Elias: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:13NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:51NYIFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:31NYIKyle Okposo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:47NJDHenrik Tallinder: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – Ullstrom – Cizikas8:24
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares13:30
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin2:54
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Nielsen – Grabner11:04
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – Strait15:37
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Carkner – Hickey5:45
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic20:43
xG 0.47–0.77 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter10:14
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Clarkson8:49
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Zajac2:38
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Josefson4:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson14:38
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Salvador – Zidlicky9:42
xG 0.70–0.50 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Volchenkov8:02
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).