Thu, Jan 31, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 3, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 18 | 29 | 325 |
| FLA | 016 | 110 | 58 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:14FLABrian CampbellPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 16:11WPGGrant ClitsomeAssists: Andrew Ladd, Paul Postma · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:23WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:34FLAKris VersteegAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 7:38WPGToby EnstromAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:20FLAPeter MuellerPPAssists: Marcel Goc, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–3
- P3 12:37FLAAlex KovalevPPGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Tomas Kopecky · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 15:29FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 18:32FLATomas KopeckyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:27FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:42FLAJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:14WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:22WPGZach Redmond: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:58WPGMark Stuart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:55FLAPeter Mueller: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:43WPGJames Wright: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:43WPGJames Wright: Instigator face shield2 min
- P3 5:43WPGJames Wright: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:43WPGJames Wright: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:43FLAScottie Upshall: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:43FLAScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:43FLAScottie Upshall: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:35WPGAlexei Ponikarovsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:59WPGOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Ladd – Little12:20
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright5:06
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane11:21
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Ponikarovsky – Wellwood – Burmistrov8:46
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Redmond11:48
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Postma10:39
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Enstrom14:12
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Kopecky – Matthias12:11
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau7:25
xG 0.41–0.42 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:16
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Smithson – Upshall – Skille5:28
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Ellerby12:05
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov14:23
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kuba – Campbell11:16
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).