Fri, Feb 1, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 114 | 16 | 231 |
| WSH | 011 | 16 | 29 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:43PHIBruno GervaisAssists: Daniel Brière, Tye McGinn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 17:42WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: John Carlson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:57WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:44WSHWojtek WolskiGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 10:30PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Matt Read, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:23PHIZac Rinaldo: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:13WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:05PHIKimmo Timonen: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:14PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:14PHIZac Rinaldo: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 18:14WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:14WSHMatt Hendricks: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:26WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:11PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:12PHITye McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00PHIKimmo Timonen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:25WSHTomas Kundratek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Read – Couturier10:12
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Brière – Giroux – McGinn6:02
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Talbot – Voracek – Schenn2:34
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – McGinn2:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gervais11:59
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Foster – Grossmann7:30
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn10:55
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson10:44
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle9:18
xG 0.04–0.21 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ovechkin – Wolski11:18
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner14:37
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 10–19goals 2–1
- Schultz – Kundratek10:48
xG 0.27–0.45 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson16:13
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).