Fri, Feb 1, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 0, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 013 | 08 | 033 |
| CAR | 115 | 09 | 011 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:13CARDrayson Bowman: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:31OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:52OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23CARJamie McBain: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:12OTTErik Karlsson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:15CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:55OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Turris7:29
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Condra – O'Brien – Zibanejad3:59
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Regin – Daugavins – Silfverberg5:42
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith3:51
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson9:06
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Wiercioch6:48
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Phillips – Benoit5:28
xG 0.06–0.39 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Dwyer – Bowman5:42
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty6:56
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Dalpe – Skinner5:56
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Harrison6:53
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain8:22
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gleason – Faulk8:09
xG 0.15–0.74 (17%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).