Fri, Feb 1, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 111 | 29 | 08 | 06 | 1 | 334 |
| DAL | 26 | 18 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:03DALBrenden DillonUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 14:00PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 0:45PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 14:14DALMichael RyderAssists: Cody Eakin, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 18:26PHXMartin HanzalAssists: David Moss · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. DAL Ray Whitney stopped
- 5. PHX Antoine Vermette stopped
- 6. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 7. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 8. DAL Jaromir Jagr scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:44DALJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 2:20PHXDavid Moss: Holding2 min
- P2 6:11DALAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:02PHXZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:53DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:53DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:53PHXKyle Chipchura: Instigator2 min
- P2 13:53PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:53PHXKyle Chipchura: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:35DALJaromir Jagr: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Johnson12:09
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker12:13
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 2–2
- Bissonnette – Bolduc – Chipchura2:49
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Korpikoski12:30
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson16:58
xG 0.91–0.23 (80%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Morris – Yandle15:28
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Stone11:11
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Jagr – Eriksson – Benn12:08
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Whitney – Ryder – Eakin12:03
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Vincour9:27
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Roussel – Garbutt6:00
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski12:29
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn2:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Robidas – Goligoski3:11
xG 0.05–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).