Sat, Feb 2, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 14 | 06 | 116 |
| PIT | 08 | 212 | 310 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:27PITBrandon SutterAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 9:56PITChris KunitzGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:23NJDAndy GreeneSHAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Ryan Carter · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:31PITKris LetangAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 7:11PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 9:51PITRobert BortuzzoAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:22NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:52PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:44NJDPatrik Elias: Holding2 min
- P3 13:20NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:54PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Barch – Kovalchuk – Josefson3:08
xG 0.02–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Henrique11:37
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter9:46
xG 0.12–0.56 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Zajac12:52
xG 0.10–0.55 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Zidlicky12:35
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Salvador – Harrold3:49
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov9:36
xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Neal – Boychuk8:47
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:20
xG 0.66–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 3–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:59
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale6:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Despres14:28
xG 0.68–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Engelland – Bortuzzo10:01
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Orpik – Martin17:03
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).