Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 1, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 01 | 012 | 118 | 131 |
| MTL | 115 | 36 | 211 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52MTLRene BourquePPAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 2:03MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 10:08MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Lars Eller · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 10:36MTLLars EllerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 1:22MTLRene BourqueAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 3:01BUFThomas VanekSHAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
- P3 12:43MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Lars Eller, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:34BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:40MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P1 7:12BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:15BUFMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:27MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:35BUFChristian Ehrhoff: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:43MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:30MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:23BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:23BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:08BUFJason Pominville: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:34BUFJordan Leopold: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:38MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:32MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:24BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Grigorenko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson8:01
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno3:51
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Scott4:52
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – Foligno – Grigorenko5:18
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers3:20
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Weber – Myers2:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber2:35
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Eller9:09
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:03
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk5:14
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Moen – Armstrong – Galchenyuk3:10
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Bouillon2:07
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin11:25
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Gorges – Diaz9:49
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).