Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 012 | 010 | 134 |
| TOR | 07 | 07 | 07 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54BOSChris BourqueGWGAssists: Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:42TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:42BOSLane MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:56BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:48TORDion Phaneuf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:21BOSLane MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:21TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:45TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:45BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:24BOSDennis Seidenberg: Interference2 min
- P3 17:35BOSTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:27TORMichael Kostka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic15:49
xG 0.76–0.21 (78%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin7:02
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bergeron – Seguin3:32
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Tardif – MacDermid2:57
xG 0.03–0.03 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton12:45
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton3:54
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid9:34
xG 0.39–0.27 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Komarov – Frattin – Kadri10:38
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin13:41
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Orr – Steckel – McLaren3:48
xG 0.02–0.27 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:06
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Phaneuf2:00
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser8:41
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Liles – Franson2:45
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).