Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 213 | 014 | 115 | 342 |
| PHI | 311 | 210 | 03 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08PHIKurtis FosterPPAssists: Matt Read, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:47CARJoni PitkanenAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:27PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P1 15:25PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–3
- P1 15:58CAREric StaalAssists: Jiri Tlusty · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 0:52PHIMike KnubleGWGAssists: Matt Read · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 12:43PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 3:29CARPatrick DwyerPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:34CARJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:08CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:08PHITom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:39CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26PHIKimmo Timonen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:24CARZac Dalpe: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57PHIRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36PHIDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:33PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:23PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P3 11:36PHIMax Talbot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:36CARJiri Tlusty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:36PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty10:34
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner2:59
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Brent – Nodl4:52
xG 0.06–0.07 (49%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Bowman7:10
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Faulk11:47
xG 0.81–0.13 (86%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – McBain14:25
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Pitkanen – Faulk2:06
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Voracek – Schenn8:19
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Sestito – Rinaldo3:32
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Read – Couturier9:33
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Brière – Giroux – McGinn12:46
xG 0.29–0.81 (26%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn12:22
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Coburn – Gervais13:26
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
- Coburn – Schenn2:01
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).