Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 011 | 19 | 234 |
| CBJ | 112 | 29 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36DETJohan FranzenAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 18:17CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:32CBJArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:18CBJArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: John Moore, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 13:25CBJMark LetestuSHAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 19:33DETDamien BrunnerAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:34CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:15DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 14:27CBJMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:27DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51DETKent Huskins: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:53CBJJared Boll: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:39CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
- P3 13:12CBJR.J. Umberger: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Miller – Emmerton4:26
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Brunner3:35
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Filppula5:38
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Franzen2:27
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson8:18
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Huskins – Kindl5:26
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Kindl5:28
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Dorsett – Anisimov10:11
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Letestu7:18
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Prospal – Johansen – Marchessault6:38
xG 0.08–0.29 (23%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Brassard7:16
xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Moore7:00
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Erixon4:25
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Moore4:21
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).