Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 06 | 26 | 01 | 1 | 319 |
| CGY | 010 | 010 | 224 | 03 | 0 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:08CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 13:23CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 19:25CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Jiri Hudler, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:57CHIMarian HossaAssists: Johnny Oduya, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 5. CGY Roman Cervenka stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:24CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:24CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:36CGYMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40CHIJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:07CHIMichael Frolik: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 11:40CHIDuncan Keith: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 16:18CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:12CHIBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Hossa – Toews – Saad11:13
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kane – Shaw12:40
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Mayers – Frolik – Bollig4:21
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Kruger9:56
xG 0.23–1.91 (11%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy2:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson3:15
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook12:41
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Glencross – Backlund13:10
xG 2.42–0.29 (89%)attempts 33–9goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Cervenka12:45
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Comeau – Jones3:47
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri13:01
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Smith10:52
xG 1.87–0.18 (91%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano18:24
xG 1.15–0.36 (76%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Wideman – Bouwmeester2:07
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).