Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 4, Anaheim Ducks 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 215 | 08 | 434 |
| ANA | 311 | 26 | 28 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30ANANick BoninoAssists: Emerson Etem · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 5:49ANANick BoninoAssists: Emerson Etem, Bryan Allen · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 9:15LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 9:49LAKJarret StollAssists: Simon Gagne, Slava Voynov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 13:30ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 1:15LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 9:35ANASheldon SourayPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 14:12LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–4
- P2 16:14ANAKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Luca Sbisa · Slap, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 8:39ANANick BoninoPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Luca Sbisa · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–6
- P3 17:54ANATeemu SelanneENAssists: Nick Bonino, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:23ANASheldon Souray: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00ANABryan Allen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:29ANABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:31LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:39LAKJordan Nolan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:50LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:37LAKDustin Penner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar11:31
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Gagne – Stoll – Lewis8:33
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner9:08
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty18:13
xG 1.20–0.31 (79%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
- Martinez – Voynov14:49
xG 0.88–0.48 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Drewiske9:11
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Selanne – Ryan – Bonino2:00
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano14:07
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey12:14
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Palmieri7:06
xG 0.12–0.47 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Allen2:54
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Souray – Lydman2:06
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Allen – Fowler6:50
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).