Sun, Feb 3, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 39 | 18 | 626 |
| WSH | 19 | 14 | 111 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37PITChris KunitzAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:05WSHMike GreenAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 8:20PITMatt CookeAssists: Deryk Engelland, Robert Bortuzzo · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:03WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 6:56PITKris LetangAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 7:33PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 13:59PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 3:33WSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 19:52PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:15PITZach Boychuk: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:39PITSimon Despres: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:10WSHWojtek Wolski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:08PITSimon Despres: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 13:48PITRobert Bortuzzo: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:28WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby11:45
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Adams – Glass – Vitale6:08
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Neal – Boychuk11:56
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Bortuzzo7:19
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Engelland – Letang6:58
xG 0.29–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Orpik – Martin20:00
xG 0.48–0.49 (49%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Brouwer – Backstrom6:47
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ovechkin – Wolski12:58
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Crabb – Fehr6:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle5:27
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner17:52
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Schultz – Kundratek12:23
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Poti – Carlson16:45
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).