Sun, Feb 3, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 016 | 011 | 133 |
| MTL | 212 | 013 | 07 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38OTTJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 2:13MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 11:29MTLErik ColeGWGAssists: Francis Bouillon, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:24MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 9:26OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:51OTTKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 4:37MTLJosh Gorges: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:50OTTErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:06MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38MTLFrancis Bouillon: Diving2 min
- P2 17:38OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:26OTTJakob Silfverberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDaugavins – O'Brien – Zibanejad4:18
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith7:44
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris7:42
xG 0.67–0.85 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Michalek – Regin – Silfverberg7:34
xG 0.04–0.29 (12%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Borowiecki9:07
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson2:11
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Benoit – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Bourque12:03
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty8:48
xG 0.68–0.58 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Moen – Armstrong – Eller5:49
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:44
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz12:58
xG 1.09–0.56 (66%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban9:52
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:29
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).