Sun, Feb 3, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 3, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 07 | 313 | 327 |
| NYI | 010 | 07 | 05 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 16:06NJDSteve BernierPPGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 17:16NJDSteve BernierAssists: Ryan Carter, Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 19:38NJDDavid ClarksonENAssists: Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:59NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P1 3:29NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:55NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 6:38NYIMatt Moulson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:01NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min
- P2 2:46NJDKrys Barch: Instigator2 min
- P2 2:46NJDKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:46NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:18NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:41NJDAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:32NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:36NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:36NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:17NYIBrian Strait: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac7:51
xG 0.92–0.10 (90%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Barch – Josefson – Butler2:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter6:43
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Henrique9:39
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson9:40
xG 0.82–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky6:51
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky2:09
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares9:57
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Nielsen – Grabner8:51
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Ullstrom – Cizikas5:59
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Hickey5:02
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:55
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Strait10:44
xG 0.43–0.75 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).