Mon, Feb 4, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 13 | 09 | 326 |
| COL | 113 | 111 | 07 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 11:18DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 18:12COLMilan HejdukAssists: John Mitchell, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 11:33COLPA ParenteauPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P2 15:29DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Aaron Rome · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:21COLPatrick Bordeleau: Charging2 min
- P1 13:21COLMatt Hunwick: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:37DALMichael Ryder: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00COLPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:43DALJaromir Jagr: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:31DALBrenden Morrow: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:46DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:42DALJaromir Jagr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:22COLGreg Zanon: Holding2 min
- P3 16:13COLRyan O'Byrne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Morrow – Benn12:30
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Roussel5:38
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Eakin – Vincour3:43
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ryder – Smith – Eakin3:37
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon14:07
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Oleksiak13:54
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Rome11:49
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Mitchell – Stastny8:40
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Kobasew – McLeod – Olver6:59
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Bordeleau – Sgarbossa4:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:26
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien11:08
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson9:20
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
- Zanon – O'Byrne15:20
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).