Mon, Feb 4, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 18 | 04 | 122 |
| PHX | 117 | 16 | 011 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:09PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Boyd Gordon, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 7:48PHXMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Zbynek Michalek · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 10:20MINZach PariseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:34MINTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:49PHXSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:11PHXDerek Morris: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Brodziak – Mitchell – Clutterbuck10:49
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Konopka – Setoguchi – Granlund11:03
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Parise12:34
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Cullen – Bouchard – Coyle10:43
xG 0.11–0.26 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Suter2:05
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Falk – Scandella10:25
xG 0.29–0.35 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner15:47
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Boedker10:35
xG 0.81–0.32 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Moss – Gordon – Korpikoski11:43
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Torres – Chipchura – Johnson8:39
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Korpikoski – Johnson2:16
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson14:15
xG 1.07–0.41 (72%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson6:25
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone4:57
xG 0.02–0.09 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).